Cost–Benefit Analysis of a Trans-Arctic Alternative Route to the Suez Canal: A Method Based on High-Fidelity Ship Performance, Weather, and Ice Forecast Models

Climate change in recent years has produced viable shipping routes the Arctic. However, critical uncertainties related to maritime operations Arctic make it difficult predict ship speeds ice and, thus, voyage time and fuel costs. Cost–benefit analysis of alternative based on accurate environmental condition modeling is required. In this context, paper presents a holistic approach that considers major voyage-related costs trans-Arctic route as an conventional via Suez Canal Route (SCR) for existing merchant ships. This tool high-fidelity models performance, metocean forecasting, optimization algorithm. Case studies are performed general cargo vessel operation quantify realistic expenses inclusive all operational, fuel, specific voyages. A comparison made between total SCR different seasons, which proves economic feasibility route. Overall, work can provide valuable insights help policymakers well shipbuilders, owners, operators assess potential cost-effectiveness sustainability future shipping, thereby better developing strategies.